China Premier Li Qiang Says Economy Grew ‘Around 5.2 Percent’

China’s second-highest leader said on Tuesday that the country’s economy grew by “around 5.2%” last year, giving an unusual first look at key economic data a day before they are officially released.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Li Qiang, China’s second most powerful figure after Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council, said that China had exceeded last year’s economic growth target of about 5%. He also insisted that China had managed to grow its economy without using high-risk or short-term measures such as massive spending or credit programs.

“In the process of economic development, we insisted on avoiding major stimulus and did not seek short-term growth at the expense of accumulating long-term risks,” he said.

Li Keqiang’s remarks were consistent with publicly released economic growth forecasts for last year. China will announce official figures in Beijing on Wednesday.

Chinese news agency Caixin said a survey of economists last week concluded the economy was likely to grow by 5.3%.

The timing of official economic reports has been a sensitive topic in China since the government delayed the release of economic growth information by a week in October 2022. The extra time allowed the party to complete an important national congress before releasing lackluster statistics to the population. public.

Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said that the economic growth forecast mentioned by Li Keqiang deviates much less seriously from global standards than the postponement to 2022. “There are enough questions about the credibility of the Chinese data that I don’t think this is a serious violation of our confidence in the data,” he said.

As Li Keqiang mentioned, China has been cautious about quickly stepping up economic stimulus to reverse the general slowdown. China is particularly wary of increases in central government spending. Last year, the administration even trimmed the country’s social safety net by modestly increasing government payments to seniors and halting a massive unemployment insurance program.

But in recent months, China’s central government has authorized additional bond issuance, a form of borrowing, and raised limits on deficit spending. Beijing says the bonds are necessary in part to provide additional funds to deal with last summer’s severe flooding. This winter, China’s central bank also took steps to indirectly provide additional credit to local governments.

China faces a sharp decline in the real estate industry and an alarming loss of consumer confidence. Li Keqiang spent much of his speech in Davos demonstrating that China is an attractive market for multinational companies and a country with strong economic growth prospects. He pointed out that China is the world’s largest exporter and has the most extensive industries in the world.

Chris Buckley and Li You Contributed reporting and research.