Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance

Ukrainian trench lines outside Avdievka, which is claimed by Russia.

Satellite image from Planet Labs, February 26

New York Times report

Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdievka, driven in part by dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and reduced Western aid.

But there’s another reason for Kremlin forces advancing in the region: Ukraine’s weak defenses.

The area west of Avdievka that Ukraine is trying to defend is dotted with sparse, rudimentary lines of trenches, according to a review by The Times of imagery from commercial satellite company Planet Labs. These trench lines lacked many of the additional fortifications that could have helped slow down Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.

Avdievka has been the site of fierce confrontations over the past nine months, becoming one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on February 17, it was the first major advance since last May, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have captured defense lines outside the city.

But Russian troops have captured three villages west of Avdiivka within a week, and they are fighting for at least one village.

Source: Planet Labs satellite imagery; Institute for War Studies and American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project Russian-controlled territory (as of February 29, 2024).

New York Times report

Satellite imagery of the scale shown here is widely used. U.S. officials have said privately that there is concern that Ukraine did not harden its defenses early enough or well enough, and that Ukraine may now face consequences as Russian forces slowly but steadily move past Avdiivka.

British military intelligence said on Thursday that Russian troops had advanced to about four miles Over the past two weeks, advances from the center of Avdiivka have been small but unusually rapid compared to previous offensive operations.

Ukrainian commanders had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The region has been under attack since 2014 and Ukraine’s control of the region has been tenuous since Russia launched a full-scale invasion two years ago.

But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdievka show crude earthen fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry units to reach closest enemy firing positions, but little else.

Stronger Russian defenses

Ukraine’s lack of strong fortifications in the area is particularly glaring compared with the strong Russian defenses that stymied Kiev’s advance during last summer’s Ukrainian counteroffensive and ultimately failed.

Russian defenses outside the southern village of Verbove, where Ukraine tried unsuccessfully this fall to retake it, present a very different picture.

Sources: Satellite imagery from Planet Labs; Russian-controlled territory from Institute of War Studies and American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project (as of February 29, 2024); Russian defenses based on data from Brady Africk.

New York Times report

Unlike the weakly defended villages outside Avdievka that the Russian army attempted to capture, Verbov had a concentric ring of fortifications. First a trench wide enough to trap advancing tanks and armored vehicles, then a network of cement barriers known as “dragon’s teeth” – also used to stop vehicles – and finally a vast trench for infantry .

Satellite images from February show Russia’s multi-layered defenses west of Verbove, with thousands of craters visible in the surrounding area.

Satellite image from Planet Labs, February 25

New York Times report

“A very expensive option”

There may be many reasons for Ukraine’s apparent lack of defense capabilities.

U.S. officials and military experts say Ukrainian officials may have been too focused on offensive operations last year and did not devote the necessary resources to construct the multiple trenches and tank traps that Russian engineers have built in the country’s south since late 2022.

“Who cares, who thinks it’s an option – because it’s a very expensive option – to build a defensive line? No one,” said retired Ukrainian army colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi, who noted Ukraine had few spare resources at the time.

U.S. officials said there may also be psychological factors at play. If Ukrainian forces lay large numbers of mines in certain areas to halt Russian advances, it would be a tacit admission that they are less likely to conduct offensive operations in the same areas in the future. Officials said they were effectively placing the territory under Russian military control.

Moscow began building a defensive line in the south more than half a year before Kiev’s counteroffensive, while Ukraine appears to have begun plans for new fortifications just three months ago, when government officials announced the creation of a working group to coordinate efforts between civilian and military authorities. effort.

Responsibility for building the first line of defense will fall to military forces stationed in the area, while subsequent lines will be built by civilian authorities with the assistance of private contractors, officials said. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal said that about 30 billion Ukrainian hryvnias (about 800 million U.S. dollars) have been allocated for defense this year.

During a visit near the front line in late November, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the eastern Donetsk region, where Avdievka is located, “will receive the greatest attention,” noting that “the construction of buildings needs to be promoted and accelerated.” Construction”.

But analyst Pasi Paroinen from the company blackbird groupThe company, which analyzed satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said “no significant incidents have occurred” since Zelensky’s visit.

Paronin added that outside Avdiivka, “new positions are being prepared, but they do not yet constitute a particularly strong line of defense” and are not comparable in size to Russia’s defenses in the south.

Ukrainian authorities say they lack personnel capable of carrying out construction work. In mid-January, local officials in the western Ivano-Frankivsk region said they were looking for 300 workers willing to help build fortifications in the Donetsk region, more than 500 miles to the east.

“We lack engineering units. Even the units we have lack equipment,” Mr. Hrabsky said. In comparison, Russia has more equipment, materials and experienced personnel when building its defense lines, he and Paronin said.

In recent days, several Ukrainian journalists have decried the lack of solid defense lines outside Avdiivka, a rare public criticism of the military.

Delays in fortification construction mean Ukrainian forces may now have to reinforce their lines under fire from Russian forces, making the task even more difficult.

Hrabsky said Russia is currently preventing Ukrainian forces from solidifying their defenses through relentless bombing, including the use of powerful glide bombs carrying hundreds of tons of explosives that can destroy even well-prepared defenses.

“The quality of these lines of defense is not sufficient to withstand the Russian army’s massive bulldozing tactics,” Hrabsky said.

Oleksandra Mykolyshyn contributed reporting.